Daily Macro Economy News on July 17

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Domestic News

1. Cui Dongshu: China's car market has the potential to promote consumption, and it is an inevitable trend to exceed 40 million units

2. Wu Qizhou, deputy director of SMBEE: Will continue to explore and expand the scope of carbon emission management industries in the city

3. Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu attends the 7th Climate Action Ministerial Conference

4. Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd: The net profit is expected to fall 77.45%-81.67% in the first half of 2023

International News

1. JP Morgan: Anti-inflationary process is unsustainable unless payrolls growth slow down

2. Pessimism spreads among German medium-sized enterprises, more than a quarter of them consider giving up their business

3. In order to cover the huge losses caused by the massive earthquake, Turkey decided to triple the fuel tax

4. Prime Minister's plan to fund government pay rises by raising immigration fees comes under heavy fire

More detials:

Domestic News

1. Cui Dongshu: China's car market has the potential to promote consumption, and it is an inevitable trend to exceed 40 million units

CACP general secretary, Cui Dongshu, said on the 16^th in Changchun that China's residents slowed down debt growth but savings, so the car market in China has the potential to promote consumption. For the second half of China's car market trends, Cui Dongshu believes that it is expected to continue to maintain the good trend in the first half of 2023. He said, at present, both central and local governments are making efforts to promote consumption, introduced a number of policies and financial support initiatives, which are very favorable for automobile consumption promotion. Cui Dongshu is confident about the future of China's car market. "China's car market is not developing as fast as in earlier years, but the overall situation is still stable, car ownership will grow slightly, and it is an inevitable trend for China's car market to reach more than 40 million units." (Resource: CNN)

2. Wu Qizhou, deputy director of SMBEE: Will continue to explore and expand the scope of carbon emission management industries in the city

At the seminar on the carbon market of trade and development, Wu Qizhou, a member of the party group and deputy director of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Ecological Environment (SMBEE), said in his speech that the future will continue to explore and expand the scope of the city's carbon emission management industry, explore the optimization of the allocation of allowances, continue to support the guidance to carry out the construction of pilot projects for climate investment and financing, accelerate the innovation of carbon finance, and the introduction of the rules of repurchase trading business at the same time to strive for the implementation of repurchase business, and continue to enhance Shanghai's capacity building in relation to climate change. Enhance Shanghai's capacity building related to climate change. Wu Qizhou pointed out that at present, Shanghai’s carbon emission market has included 28 industries such as the steel and chemical industry, 356 enterprises, and 1500 investment institutions, creating a record of 100% compliance for 9 consecutive years. By the end of June this year, the cumulative turnover of each variety of Shanghai's carbon spot was 220 million tons, and the cumulative turnover amount has exceeded 3.4 billion yuan, which is among the highest in the country.

3. Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu attends the 7th Climate Action Ministerial Conference

According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment official Weibo news, from July 13^th to 14^th local time, the 7^th Ministerial Conference on Climate Action was held in Brussels, Belgium, which is jointly hosted by China, the European Union, and Canada. Huang Runqiu, the Minister of Ecology and Environment, as the co-chair of the conference, attended and delivered a speech, and participate in the discussion of issues as well. Huang Runqiu said that the impact of climate change is becoming more and more serious, and the urgency of strengthening climate action is increasing, all parties should reshape the political mutual trust, return to the right track of cooperation, resolutely safeguard the rules, effectively implement the commitments, adhere to develop the best of their ability and strengthen international cooperation.

4. Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd: The net profit is expected to fall 77.45%-81.67% in the first half of 2023

On July 16^th evening, Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd announced, it is expected that the net profit of the first half of 2023 will reach 265 million yuan, showing a decrease of 325 million yuan or a year-on-year decrease of 77.45% -81.67%. In the first half of the year, by the impact of the supply shock, the downstream steel market demand is less than expected and other factors, the price of steel products oscillate weak. Although coking coal, coke, and other raw fuel prices have declined, iron ore is still at a relatively high level, the company’s gross profit space of steel products narrowed.

International News

1. JP Morgan: Anti-inflationary process is unsustainable unless payrolls growth slow down

JP Morgan says the slowdown in June's CPI data looks favorable. The moderation in commodity inflation may be one of the reasons for the recent decline in short-term inflation expectations. But JP Morgan analysts said the slowing inflation process is unlikely to be sustained unless wage growth slows from its recent 4%-5% level. "Initial jobless claims jumped in early June, raising questions about the health of the job market," the analysts added.

2. Pessimism spreads among German medium-sized enterprises, more than a quarter of them consider giving up their business

According to the German Federal Association of Medium-sized Enterprises (Bundesverband für Medium-sized Enterprises) released the results of a survey on the 16th of local time, more than a quarter of German medium-sized enterprises (26%) are considering giving up their own business; more than one-fifth of medium-sized enterprises (22%) are even considering to transfer their business to overseas. Specifically, more than a quarter of the companies surveyed believe that high taxes are a major obstacle; another quarter of the respondents believe that the intensifying shortage of skilled labor is severely limiting the development of their businesses. Markus Jaeger, chairman of the German Federal Association of Medium-sized Enterprises, said in a statement the same day that the survey not only sends a warning signal. When companies that are deeply rooted in their home countries are considering giving up or moving overseas, the situation has become so dire that solutions are urgently needed.

3. In order to cover the huge losses caused by the massive earthquake, Turkey decided to triple the fuel tax

Turkey raised fuel taxes by nearly 200 percent on Sunday, a move that will magnify inflationary pressures in the country and further tighten household budgets, according to foreign media reports. Turkey announced the new special excise tax on different fuels, including gasoline and diesel, in a government gazette. The tax increase will help meet the financial needs caused by the February earthquake and allow the Ministry of Finance to maintain strong cash reserves, a Finance Ministry statement said. The government estimates that the earthquake caused more than $100 billion in damage. But the decision is expected to push inflation, which is currently at an annual rate of 38 percent, even higher against the backdrop of the depreciation of the Turkish lira and the government's plans to increase spending to fulfill campaign promises.

4. Prime Minister's plan to fund government pay rises by raising immigration fees comes under heavy fire

The British government's plan to fund public sector pay rises by raising fees for immigrants applying for visas and the NHS has been described by charities, trade unions, and opponents in politics as "deeply unfair" and "deliberately antagonistic". Unison, which represents 1.3 million public service workers, warned that raising immigration fees would "push more people into poverty," while the Joint Committee on the Welfare of Immigrants accused the British government of "a blatant attempt to pit workers against each other and divide our communities," according to the Guardian. ". The criticism comes after Prime Minister Sunnucks announced a 5% to 7 % pay rise in the public sector, including doctors and teachers, which will be partly funded by raising the fees paid by migrants to live and work in the United Kingdom.

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