Prediction about PVC demand and trend in 2023
2022年国内PVC年初年末盘整，年中出现大跌. PVC行业利润较差，下半年PVC企业明显降负或停产。预计在2023年PVC行业产能利用率将高于2022年，全年产量或将达2300吨，加之2022年期货库存较高，在2023年供应上将保持增量模式。PVC需求将有增量预期，管板材占比扩大。
In 2022, PVC industry adjusted at the beginning and end of the year, with a sharp drop in the middle of the year. The profit of PVC industry is poor, In the second half of the year, PVC manufacturers have significantly decreased or stopped production. It is estimated that the capacity utilization of PVC in 2022 will higher than that in 2023, the whole year production will reach 2300 tons this year, besides, there are a heavy storage in future stock in 2022, also the supply of PVC will increasing in 2023. and the demand for PVC are expected to grow, which PVC pipe and PVC profile accounted a large scale.
2023年将是国内发展经济、促进消费的一年。预计PVC需求量在2023年环比增幅约在6.7%。传统需求维持在2%-3%的增速；基建管材、包装片材、软制品、医疗产品预计引领增长点。在2022年以前PVC与房地产关联度较高，其主力下游管材、型材及门窗等硬制品在房地产的应用较大。而在2022年因房地产低迷状态持续时间较长，PVC下游制品行业在电缆料、管材、板片材以及膜料的占比略有提升。
According to the policy, 2023 will be a year what aims to develop domestic economy and accelerate consumption. Market demand for PVC is expected to climb around 6.7% year on year. The growth rate of traditional demand maintain 2%-3%; pipes used in infrastructure, packaging sheets, soft products and medical products are expected to lead the growth. Before 2022, PVC industry have high link with housing, the application of PVC industry mainly include pipe, profile ,windows and doors. While housing lasted a depression for a long time in 2022, the proportion of PVC downstream products industry in cable material, pipe material, sheet material and film material has certain increase.
2023年国内PVC供应量增大，但因扩产增速高于需求增速，加之2023年全球经济增长大概率将放缓影响，国内恢复性增长速度受到终端行业景气度限制。下游方面传统型材、地板类市场竞争加大，管材、管件加工产业将继续主导 PVC主要需求，电缆料、膜料、板片材行业存在新的发展机遇。供需压力将随着时间而逐步消化，在2023年下半年高库存格局或将改善。
In 2023, PVC supply will rise nationwide, but due to the growth rate of production expansion higher than that of the demand and worldwide economy increasing rate will relieved in 2023, China nationwide recovery speed will limited by the end industry. In terms of downstream, the competition of traditional profile, floor markets will increase, pipe and pipe fitting processing industry will continue to dominate the main demand for PVC. There are new development opportunities in cable material, film material and sheet material industries. Supply and demand pressure will decrease gradually as time going by, high inventory would improved in the second half of 2023.
