What are the main aspects to pay attention to PVC industry?
PVC 粉的供给方面，如在研究逻辑中所说，产能及产量变化是供应分析的关键。新增产能主要依赖于对新建项目的跟踪，同时也需要关注行业企业开工负荷率和产能利用率的趋势性变化。在产能利用率不断增长的周期内，高负荷必然伴随着供应量的增加，此时市场驱动为向下；反之，负荷降低则意味着供应减少，对市场驱动则为向上。由于 PVC 粉的生产地主要集中在内蒙、新疆等西北地区，所以西北地区开工负荷对 PVC 粉供应端变化具有较为明显的导向性指引。
In terms of the supply of PVC powder, the change of production capacity and output is the key to supply analysis. The new capacity mainly depends on the tracking of new projects, and also needs to pay attention to the trend changes in the industrial enterprises' operating load rate and capacity utilization rate. In the period of continuous growth of capacity utilization, high load is bound to be accompanied by an increase in supply. At this time, the market drive is downward; On the contrary, the load reduction means the supply reduction and the market drive is upward. Since the production of PVC powder is mainly concentrated in the northwest regions such as Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, the starting load in the northwest region has obvious guidance for the change of PVC powder supply end.
2、消费量 Consumption
目前主要跟踪了 PVC 粉的的表观消费量和实际消费量。实际消费量是通过 PVC 粉产量、PVC 粉进出口量以及 PVC 粉相关库存数据进行推倒得出。当消费量提升，往往意味着需求变好，此外表观消费量和表观消费增长率也可以在一定程度上反应整体消费情况。
At present, it mainly tracks the apparent consumption and actual consumption of PVC powder. The actual consumption is derived from the output of PVC powder, the import and export volume of PVC powder and the relevant inventory data of PVC powder. When consumption increases, it often means that demand is better. In addition, apparent consumption and apparent consumption growth rate can also reflect the overall consumption situation to a certain extent.
3、库存 stock
库存指标是反映 PVC 粉供求关系的重要指标之一。目前库存主要是 PVC 粉华东及华南样本仓库库存，库存样本覆盖华东、华南主流 18 个仓库，占华东华南仓库总库存的 80%以上。仓库库存反映了近期仓库到货及出库的相对变化情况，仓库库存持续走高，说明市场货源增加，则价格会相应下跌；仓库库存持续下降，说明仓库货源出库大于入库，市场货源减少，则会推动价格上涨。
Inventory index is one of the important indexes reflecting the relationship between supply and demand of PVC powder. At present, the inventory is mainly of PVC powder in East China and South China sample warehouses. The inventory samples cover 18 mainstream warehouses in East China and South China, accounting for more than 80% of the total inventory in East China and South China warehouses. The warehouse inventory reflects the relative changes in the recent arrival and delivery of the warehouse. The warehouse inventory continues to rise, indicating that the market supply increases, and the price will fall accordingly; The continuous decline of warehouse inventory indicates that the warehouse supply of goods is greater than the receipt of goods, and the decrease of market supply of goods will drive the price up.
4、成本利润模型 Cost and Profit
PVC 粉利润是影响 PVC 粉未来产量的因素之一。PVC 粉利润主要受到原料电石、VCM、乙烯以及 PVC 价格的影响。高利润模式下，PVC 粉企业可能加速开工，因此需跟踪 PVC 粉的利润变化对 PVC 粉产量造成的影响，高利润容易刺激 PVC 粉产量增加，从而压制后续 PVC 粉价格上行空间；而如果持续亏损，则部分 PVC 粉企业可能选择降负荷或者停车，PVC 粉产量将会下降。另一方面，利润也会在产业链之间传导，如果下游的产品利润亏损严重，那么上游产品的需求受到抑制，出货不畅，就容易出现降价走量的情况，价格容易下跌。
The profit of PVC powder is one of the factors affecting the future production of PVC powder. The profit of PVC powder is mainly affected by the price of raw materials such as calcium carbide, VCM, ethylene and PVC. Under the high profit mode, PVC powder enterprises may accelerate the start of construction, so it is necessary to track the impact of the profit change of PVC powder on the production of PVC powder. High profit is easy to stimulate the increase of PVC powder production, thus suppressing the subsequent upward space of PVC powder price; If the loss continues, some PVC powder enterprises may choose to reduce the load or shut down, and the production of PVC powder will decline. On the other hand, profits will also be transmitted between the industrial chains. If the profits of downstream products suffer serious losses, the demand of upstream products will be restrained, and the shipment will not be smooth, so it is easy to reduce the price and increase the volume, and the price is easy to fall.
这里主要提的是我国电石法企业占比近80%，所以电石的价格对pvc的成本有相当大的影响，是不可忽视的因素，其中2021年的行情主要受电石价格飞涨推动的。其次就是烧碱的价格，企业在计算综合成本时，不只考虑pvc，还会把烧碱算进去，所以烧碱的价格是不可忽略的因素。
It is mainly mentioned here that China's carbide law enterprises account for nearly 80%, so the price of carbide has a considerable impact on the cost of pvc, which cannot be ignored. The market in 2021 is mainly driven by the soaring price of carbide. The second is the price of caustic soda. When calculating the comprehensive cost, enterprises will not only consider pvc, but also include caustic soda, so the price of caustic soda is a factor that cannot be ignored.
5、进出口数量 Import and export quantity
进出口量是由国外供需变化和国内外差价变动引起的。国外产量和需求的变化和国内外价差的变动均会导致进出口量、进出口金额的变化。从卓创资讯红期客户端可以检测到这一数据的变化情况。当国外多套装置集中停车检修或者国外装置突发不可抗力，但国外需求稳定时，将会导致进口量缩减，而当国内和国外套利空间打开，则出口量积极提升。
The import and export volume is caused by changes in foreign supply and demand and changes in domestic and foreign price differences. Changes in foreign production and demand and changes in domestic and foreign price differences will lead to changes in import and export volume and import and export amount. The change of this data can be detected from the red period client of Zhuochuang Information. When many foreign units are shut down for maintenance or force majeure occurs to foreign units, but the foreign demand is stable, the import volume will be reduced, while when the domestic and foreign arbitrage space is opened, the export volume will be positively increased.
PVC 粉在整个产业链中属于偏终端的产品，下游消费领域众多，每个消费领域，涉及成千上万家企业，所以目前行业内并没有直接的下游产品相关数据。因为 PVC 粉 65%以上用于和房地产相关的行业，一般用于房地产施工阶段的中后期，和房地产新开工面积、房地产施工面积以及房地产竣工数据有一定相关性。所以行业内一般通过房地产的相关数据对 PVC 粉下游进行定性分析和预测。
PVC powder is a terminal product in the whole industrial chain. There are many downstream consumption fields, each of which involves thousands of enterprises. So there is no direct data on downstream products in the industry at present. Because more than 65% of PVC powder is used in industries related to real estate, which is generally used in the middle and late stages of real estate construction, and has a certain correlation with the newly started area of real estate, the construction area of real estate and the completion data of real estate. Therefore, the industry generally conducts qualitative analysis and prediction on the downstream of PVC powder through the relevant data of real estate.
